Dr. Susan A. MacManus, USF Distinguished University Professor Emerita

Dr. Kathryn DePalo, University Instructor, Florida International University

Amy N. Benner, Research Associate, now Graduate Student Rutgers University

 

Election 2018 is being billed as the “New Year of the Woman.” Much of the national focus has been on record numbers of women running for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Congress, and Governor—the so-called “pink wave.” There has been far less national attention given to women seeking seats in state legislatures.  Yet, state legislatures are where political parties build their benches of promising candidates for higher office.  

 

This article identifies all the women running for the Florida Legislature in 2018—up considerably from the number running in 2016. (See Candidate Fact Sheet at the end of the article.) Our focus is on their party affiliation and on the nature of the seat they have chosen to run for-- House or Senate? an open seat? against an incumbent? against another female?

 

Currently, Florida is ranked 25 in the number of women elected to the state Legislature. There are 14 women out of 40 members in the Senate (6 Democrats, 8 Republicans) and 28 women out of 120 members in the House (14 Democrats, 14 Republicans). This year’s candidates hope to improve those numbers.

 

An Overview

 

Of the nearly 350 candidates qualified to run for a seat in the Florida Legislature, women make up about a third (122 candidates). Consistent with national patterns, more female Democrats than Republicans are running in 2018 (82 vs. 33). Another 4 women are running with No Party Affiliation, 2 as write-ins, and 1 as a Libertarian.

 

Overall, there has been a 15% increase in the number of candidates running in 2018 compared to 2016 (122 vs. 105). But the increase has been in the number of Democratic women running (82 vs. 58 in 2016)—a 41% percent increase. The spike in Democratic women candidates has primarily been driven by the election of President Trump, but also by policy issues related to health care, reproductive rights, and gender equality, and energy from the #MeTooMovement.  

 

In contrast, the number of Republican women running for the legislature has fallen since 2016 (40 in 2016 vs. 33 this year—a 21% decline). Some have speculated that the falloff reflects Republican women waiting to run once the political climate is better, i.e. when they don’t have to face the Trump issue. Another reason may stem from the fact that Republican women are often see as more moderate on women’s issues, making it difficult to successfully navigate a Republican primary in the rural conservative districts. 

 

Of the 292 candidates for the Florida House of Representatives, 99 (34%) are female. At least one female is running in 75 of the 120 House districts (63%). Among the 50 candidates for the Florida Senate, 23 (46%) are women. There is at least one female candidate in 16 of the 20 (80%) Senate races.

 

Women often choose to run against other women.  Overall, there are 18 House and 7 Senate district races featuring multiple female candidates. These districts are primarily located in the Miami, Tampa, and Orlando media markets.  Traditionally, open seats, with no incumbent, draw more candidates.  So, it is not surprising that 8 of the House races featuring multiple female candidates are open seats; in 6 of those races, women are running against each other in a party primary.  But in 4 Senate and 6 House races, the female candidates running against each other have no primary competition.

 

Not all women candidates skirt running against an incumbent; 35 Democrats and 5 Republicans have chosen that more difficult road.  In fact, 3 Democratic women are even challenging female Democratic incumbents in House races.

 

Great Expectations

 

Based on the surge in female candidacies, many are expecting more women to be elected to the Florida Legislature.  However, the odds of a sharp increase are somewhat lessened by the number running against each other, especially in party primaries, and running against incumbents.

 

As we move beyond the primary to the general election phase of the campaign, these questions come to mind:  Will 2018 will turn out to be a year when female challengers do better against incumbents than is traditionally the case? Will female voter turnout escalate with more women running?   Do the campaign strategies of women running against other women differ from those running against only men? Will gender be an effective voting cue for these legislative races that generate less interest than the top-of-the-ballot races (governor, Congress)? Will unsuccessful female candidates, especially first-time candidates, choose to run again?  We plan to conduct post-election analyses of this year’s female legislative candidates in search of answers to these looming questions. 

 

The Data

 

The table below summarizes the data on female candidacies by Chamber and Party. The Candidate Fact Sheet that follows lists individual candidates and specific districts they are running to represent. Candidate information is from data posted on the Florida Division of Elections website.

 

Table: Summary statistics on women candidates for the Florida Legislature, 2018

(All cells are number of women candidates—not percent)

 

Women Candidates	Total				Senate				House
	D	R	Other	Total	D	R	Other	Total	D	R	Other	Total
Total	82	33	7	122	16	5	2	23	66	28	5	99
Multiple women candidates in same race	35	17	3	55	9	4	1	14	26	13	2	41
Women incumbent facing a primary challenger	4	0	0	4	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	3
Women candidates challenging an incumbent	37	5	5	47	10	1	2	13	27	4	3	34
Women candidates elected unopposed	9	0	0	9	2	0	0	2	7	0	0	7
Woman vs. woman in primaryelection (no other candidates)	8	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	8
Woman vs. woman in general(no primary competition)	9	10	1	20	4	4	0	8	5	6	1	12

 

FLORIDA’S FEMALE LEGISLATIVE CANDIDATES – FACT SHEET

 

NUMBER OF WOMEN CANDIDATES RUNNING

 

Florida House of Representatives: 99; 75 districts

Democrat: 66

Republican: 28

NPA (no party affiliation): 4

WRI (write-in candidate): 1

 

Florida Senate: 23; 16 districts

Democrat: 16

Republican: 5

LPF (Libertarian Party of Florida): 1

WRI (write-in candidate): 1

OVERALL TOTAL:  122

 

MULTIPLE WOMEN CANDIDATES IN SAME RACE

 

Florida House of Representatives  

 

District 1: Rebekah Bydlak (R), Lisa Doss (R), Vikki Garrett (D), Franscine Cecilia Mathis (D)

Open seat – Currently held by Clay Ingram (R) who was term-limited

District 14: Kimberly Daniels (D)*, Paula D. Wright (D)

District 17: Jaime D. Perkins (NPA), Cyndi Stevenson (R)*

District 31: Debra A. Kaplan (D), Jennifer Sullivan (R)*

District 32: Cynthia Brown (D), Sheryl Needle Cohn (D), Monica L. Wofford (R)

Open seat – Currently VACANT (previously held by Larry Metz (R); appointed to Florida’s 5^th Circuit Court in March, 2018)

District 36: Linda Jack (D), Amber Mariano (R)*

District 44: Margaret Melanie Gold (D), Geraldine F. Thompson (D)

District 47: Anna V. Eskamani (D), Mikaela Nix (R)

Open seat – Currently held by Mike Miller (R)

District 54: Erin Grall (R)*, Nicole Haagenson (D)

District 60: Debra Bellanti (D), Jackie Toledo (R)*

District 61: Sharon Carter (D), Dianne “Ms Dee” Hart (D), Karen Skyers (D)

Open seat – Currently held by Sean Shaw (D)

District 78: Heather Fitzenhagen (R)*, Parisima Taeb (D)

District 81: Mindy Koch (D), Tina Polsky (D)

Open seat – Currently held by Joseph Abruzzo (D)

District 84: Delores Hogan Johnson (D), Kim Jonson (D), Theresa “Teri” Pinney (R)

Open seat – Currently held by Larry Lee, Jr. (D)

District 92: Paulette V. Armstead (D), Patricia Hawkins-Williams (D)*

District 93: Emma Collum (D), Kelly Milam (NPA)

Open seat – Currently held by George R. Moraitis, Jr. (R) who was term-limited

District 96: Saima Farooqui (D), Kristin Jacobs (D)*

District 119: Analeen “Annie” Martinez (R), Bibiana “Bibi” Potestad (R)

Open seat – Currently held by Jeanette M. Nunez (R) who was term-limited

TOTAL: 18 HOUSE DISTRICTS

 

Florida Senate:

District 4: Billie Bussard (D), Joanna Liberty Tavares (LPF)

District 8:  Kayser Enneking (D), Olysha Magruder (D)

District 14: Dorothy Hukill (R)*, Melissa “Mel” Martin (D)

District 18: Janet Cruz (D), Dana Young (R)*

District 20:  Joy Gibson (D), Kathy Lewis (D)

District 28: Annisa Karim (D), Kathleen Passidomo (R)*

District 40: Marili Cancio (R), Annette Taddeo (D)*

TOTAL: 7 SENATE DISTRICTS

*Incumbent

OVERALL TOTAL:  25

 

WOMEN INCUMBENT CANDIDATES BEING PRIMARIED BY OTHER WOMEN

 

Florida House of Representatives

 

Democrat: 3

District 14 – Kimberly Daniels (being primaried by Paula D. Wright)

District 92 – Patricia Hawkins-Williams (being primaried by Paulette Armstead)

District 96 – Kristin Jacobs (being primaried by Saima Farooqui)

Republican:  0

Florida Senate

Democrat: 1

District 38 – Daphne Campbell (being primaried by Jason Pizzo)

Republican: 0

OVERALL TOTAL: 4

 

WOMEN CANDIDATES CHALLENGING INCUMBENTS

 

Florida House of Representatives

 

Democrat: 27

District: 4, 14*, 25, 27, 31, 35, 36, 42, 44, 52, 53, 54, 55, 60, 63, 64, 65, 67, 70*, 77, 78, 80, 85, 92*, 96*, 106, 108*

Republican: 4

District: 22*, 26, 86, 112

NPA: 2

District: 3, 17

WRI: 1

District: 46

TOTAL: 34

 

Florida Senate

 

Democrat: 8

District: 2, 4, 8**, 14, 18, 20**, 24, 28,

Republican: 1

District: 40

LPF: 1

District: 4

WRI: 1

District: 12

TOTAL: 11

 

*Woman candidate challenging incumbent from same party (6)

**Multiple women from same party are challenging incumbents (2)   

OVERALL TOTAL: 45  

 

WOMAN V. WOMAN HEAD-ON IN PRIMARY ELECTION

(NO OTHER CANDIDATES IN RACE)

 

Florida House of Representatives

District 14: Kimberly Daniels (D)* v. Paula D. Wright (D)

District 81: Mindy Koch (D) v. Tina Polsky (D)

Open seat – Currently held by Joseph Abruzzo (D)

District 92: Paula V. Armstead (D) v. Patricia Hawkins-Williams (D)*    

District 96: Saima Farooqui (D) v. Kristin Jacobs (D)*

TOTAL: 4

Senate:

N/A

TOTAL: 0

*Incumbent

OVERALL TOTAL: 4

 

WOMAN V. WOMAN HEAD-ON IN GENERAL ELECTION

(NO PRIMARY OPPONENTS; NO OTHER CANDIDATES IN RACE)

 

Florida House of Representatives

District 17: Jaime D. Perkins (NPA) v. Cyndi Stevenson (R)*

District 31: Debra A Kaplan (D) v. Jennifer Sullivan (R)*

District 36: Linda Jack (D) v. Amber Mariano (R)*

District 54: Erin Grall (R)* v. Nicole Haagenson (D)

District 60: Debra Bellanti (D) v. Jackie Toledo (R)*

District 78: Heather Fitzenhagen (R)* v. Parisima Taeb (D)

 

TOTAL: 6

Florida Senate

District 14:  Dorothy Hukill (R)* v. Melissa “Mel” Martin (D)

District 18: Janet Cruz (D) v. Dana Young (R)*

District 28: Annisa Karim (D) v. Kathleen Passidomo (R)*

District 40: Marili Cancio (R) v. Annette Taddeo (D)*

TOTAL: 4

*Incumbent

OVERALL TOTAL:  10

 

UNOPPOSED WOMEN CANDIDATES

(NO OPPONENTS FILED TO RUN)

 

Florida House of Representatives

District 9:  Loranne Ausley (D)*

District 13: Tracie Davis (D)*

District 45: Kamia L. Brown (D)*

District 91: Emily Ann Slosberg (D)*

District 95: Anika Omphroy (D)

District 102: Sharon Pritchett (D)*

District 107: Barbara Watson (D)*

TOTAL: 7

Florida Senate

District 6: Audrey Gibson (D)*

District 32: Lauren Book (D)*

TOTAL: 2

*Incumbent

OVERALL TOTAL: 9